Europe’s political leaders will get to Brussels later for one of their normal meetings.
They’ll be speaking about the obvious things – the EUROPEAN UNION budget, foreign affairs, coronavirus — but a chunk of time goes on something they haven’t talked about for a while… Brexit.
Discussions over a Brexit trade deal might have been going on in the background, but it continues to be many months since this number of leaders, known as the European Council, a new formal discussion about what a Brexit deal might look like.
Just a couple of weeks ago, for example, when they last met, Brexit obtained the most fleeting of mentions. Right here, at least, it’s slated for a correct, full-on discussion.
Exactly what they’ll get is an update upon negotiations, and an assessment through chief negotiator Michel Barnier showing how likely a deal might be. What we should won’t get here is a deal alone.
What that means is that Boris Johnson’s 15 October deadline will complete without a Brexit deal being authorized. Among the ranks of EU diplomats in Brussels, absolutely nobody is going to be surprised by that. They usually regarded that deadline as an Uk confection that carried no bodyweight and, for weeks now, the particular expectation has been that negotiations may plough on until the end associated with October and probably into Nov.
Leaders already know the issue – the familiar sticking factors for a Brexit deal are around governance, fisheries and the so-called “level actively playing field” provisions around regulations like state aid.
Solving problems requires more talks in both Greater london and Brussels, as well as political will certainly and compromise. Both sides nevertheless think a deal is possible however at the same time, both see no offer as a possibility.
It’s easy to declare we’ve been here before, but there exists a profound difference between the high-stakes Brexit negotiations that we saw 12 months back and the ones that are being played out these days.
Back in 2019, Brexit was the big political game around – the big beasts of Western european politics were being judged about how they managed it.
Now, since the shattering impact associated with COVID-19, the political dynamic is promoting fundamentally.
You won’t discover many Italian voters putting Brexit at the top of their worries, or People from france voters who think Emmanuel Macron’s most important job is to sort out Brexit (with the exception of People from france fishermen, who may yet force Mr Macron to veto the deal that they don’t like).
UK willing to extend Brexit talks beyond PM’s suggested deadline day
Therefore while there’s no doubt that the EUROPEAN UNION wants a deal with a country that sits so near to Europe’s borders, the mantra I’ve heard over and over is “not at any price”. Indeed, I think they are prepared to compromise, yet only if they see Mr Manley compromising too.
What exactly will come out of this council? Not a bottom line, but just a statement, I anticipate. Something to do with the need to intensify talks plus push harder for a deal. And maybe a sense of urgency. Nobody really desires Mr Johnson to walk away through talks at this point, but they do are very mindful that time is running out.
Can a deal still be performed? I think the answer to that is indeed. A Brexit deal is probably, simply, more likely than no deal.
But can we get it for granted that Europe as well as the UK will eventually find typical ground? No, I don’t think we are able to.
Both sides possess started preparing for no deal; the particular politics are volatile.
With so many other distractions in the world, providing a Brexit deal won’t be simple.